Monthly Archives: June 2019

The increase in loan costs is getting closer

A few days ago in Sopot, the European Financial Congress took place. The event was attended by the heads of the most important banks operating on the Polish market. Our attention was drawn by several warnings against the consequences that the NBP may raise interest rates. So bankers started to follow what Trader21 has been paying attention to for several years. Do such statements from the chairmen of banks mean that we will face an imminent increase in loan costs?

The era of zero or record low interest rates has lasted for 8 years and is clearly ending. The FED has already carried out three rate hikes and another one is hanging in the air. Europe is slowly preparing to move in the same direction. The trend will also not affect Poland.

This means that thousands of Poles who are currently paying off their loan for a dozen or so months will pay higher installments. As a reminder: the amount of the loan installment depends on the interest rates and the bank’s fixed margin (in the case of a loan of PLN 300,000 for 30 years, it is on average 2.1%). The main interest rate is now 1.5%, which gives us a total of 3.6%. The problem is that rates are currently at a record low, which is clearly shown in the chart below.

It can not be concealed that the chances for interest rate cuts by the NBP are minimal, while the potential for increases is significant.

So let the new blog readers know what this means, let’s do a little comparison. Take Kowalski, who took out a loan of 300,000 PLN for 30 years.

At present, with an interest rate of 1.5%, Kowalski pays an installment of less than PLN 1,500.

If the rates increase to the long-term average (5%), Kowalski will pay over PLN 2000 a month.

If the rates increase to 10%, Kowalski will pay PLN 3,000 a month!

The difference of over PLN 500 is a lot for most Poles. The above comparison should be taken especially by people who are now considering taking a loan.

The situation of francs

The situation of francs

Since we have already touched upon the topic of loans, it is worth mentioning also the frankowiczes. Many people belonging to this group are currently considering converting loans from Swiss franc to zlotys. In the current situation, this is not the best idea.

The main argument here is the global capital flows, which we have mentioned many times. After eight years of pumping markets in developed countries, capital is slowly shifting to cheaper assets. Since the beginning of 2017, the stock exchanges in Poland, Turkey or several Asian countries have recorded much better results than the US indexes. In our opinion, this trend will continue for the next few years, which will result in the strengthening of the Polish currency – also with regard to the Swiss franc.

Of course, in the event of a bear market (usually 18-24 months) the franc will grow stronger. However, taking into account the perspective of 5-7 years, the Polish currency should stay firmly on its feet.

An increase in interest rates and real estate prices

An increase in interest rates and real estate prices

Low interest rates mean low return on investments. In this situation, many people decide to withdraw money from the bank and look for a profit somewhere else. Very often, the choice falls on properties that are to offer profits much higher than in the case of deposits. Usually this is how it is. However, if the period of low interest rates lasts too long, the number of investments (new flats) is growing strongly and the real estate market is beginning to fill up. This is what the Polish market looks like. Here are some facts:

– In Warsaw, Krakow and Poznan, 50% of the apartments are purchased for the purpose of short-term rental (Trader21 information obtained from three developers)

– The last two years have been record revenues of the hotel sector in Poland. Enthusiasm is growing, and the number of beds in our country over the next two years is to increase by over 30%!

– Prices of short-term rental in Poland are at very high levels today

It must be borne in mind that the dynamic increase in the number of beds we will be witnessing must translate into a decrease in rents in the purchased premises, as well as a drop in their prices. The current wave of shopping is reminiscent of 2007, when Poles were investing with full confidence in old wind farms imported from Germany. I will just add that after 10 years most of them are not even used anymore.

Returning to the property – we have two strong arguments for the approaching end of eldorado on the market. The first of these is a very large number of new investments, which will naturally lead to a drop in the prices of premises and the profitability of renting them. The second factor is interest rate increases. In the case of Poland, the next increase will probably not take place earlier than a year, but with loans for 25-30 years it is only a small consolation.

There is, of course, the other side, or arguments for a good situation on the real estate market in the following years. Firstly, as the Central Statistical Office (GUS) noted, last year more people came to Poland than they left. This situation has not been for decades. What does this mean for the real estate market? Larger population, greater demand, and therefore higher real estate prices.

We expect that the advantage of arriving over the outgoing will be at least maintained in subsequent years. There are several reasons for this:

– We are dealing with the inflow of Ukrainians all the time

– As many as 74% of last year’s “visitors” are Poles returning from emigration. It seems that the reasons for which they returned (including a full-fledged labor market or a drop in security) will still be valid

– More and more people from EU Member States note that in Poland you live safely and carry with the intention of moving to the Vistula. Sounds weird? From the perspective of a large group of Swedes (whose country is heading directly to the Third World group), Poland seems to be a not too distant place that ensures a relatively high level of security

The second argument is important first of all for those who pay back mortgage loans. Well, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates also so that in the event of a downturn in the market it will be able to reduce interest rates again, which may mitigate the effects of the financial crisis. If, therefore, Europe follows the US footsteps and starts raising rates, and then there is a crisis, further increases will be blocked. It is possible that we will return relatively quickly to current levels.Summary

Warnings of bank governors about upcoming interest rate increases should be taken seriously. Their statements confirm that each subsequent increase in loan costs in Poland will strongly affect the domestic market. If possible, people intending to take a loan should abstain or consider fixed-rate loans in the first place. Unfortunately, this second option is widely available mainly in the West. In Poland, the situation looks much worse.

At the end, once again, we repeat our advice for Fantercredit – conversion of credit today does not make sense. The migration of capital from developed to developing countries should naturally contribute to the decline in the CHF value against PLN. Another thing is that the Swiss National Bank itself is constantly working to reduce the value of the currency there.

Beware of revolving credits

In a matter of quick credits and credit cards the catalog is overwhelming. On this occasion we look at a product not free of controversy that is offered in the form of a card and whose characteristics offer interesting advantages and disadvantages that must be taken into account. They are credits or revolving cards.

What is a credit or revolving card?

What is a credit or revolving card?

It is said that a credit or a card is revolving if it is rotating. This means that the amount of money available increases and decreases respectively as the holder makes purchases and pays the expenses. One of the conditions is that a credit limit is established, but not a limit of operations. The customer holding the card has a period of time – usually one month – to reach the maximum limit set by the financial institution. Once this period has expired, you can make a payment with which to restore said credit, without having to restore yourself to the limit.

For example. If a revolving type card has a credit of 1500 euros per month and the client consumes 500 during the 30 days, the following month the limit is set at 1000 euros and the debit is 500 plus the interest for what was spent. The client has the opportunity to pay a minimum or pay the total spent to restore the maximum credit.

Advantages of revolving cards or credits

Advantages of revolving cards or credits

Basically an advantage is offered as the most striking of this type of revolving cards compared to traditional cards. With this system the client has a limit and what he consumes can be returned by means of fixed monthly payments or by percentages of the consumed. It is not necessary to put the counter to zero every time a month is consumed, but there is a great flexibility -no free of drawbacks-.

Disadvantages of the revolving system

Disadvantages of the revolving system

You could say that the revolving credit system can be interesting for some clients. However, it is more advantageous for others to apply for a quick loan or mini-loan.

In the list of the “against” credits and revolving cards it is worth noting that there is a danger in the comfort of the return of the credit. While it is possible to set a small monthly fee to settle the debt or choose the option of a percentage of the debt, it is obvious that the part will be less than the whole. That is, if what is paid is a part of the debt, the interests of what remains are offset with those of the following month until the debt becomes difficult to assume in many cases.

On occasion, the case of people whose monthly payment was less than the interest generated was pointed out, so the debt at the end of the year charged a capital. To which are added annual interests higher than those of a loan, with TAE rates of 20 or 30%. In this regard, the judicial authorities have pronounced with a resounding sentence issued by the Supreme Court in 2015 with respect to credits and revolving cards.

The Supreme Court and the revolving credits

The Supreme Court and the revolving credits

In 2001 a Catalan citizen signed a contract with the bank Sygma Hispania for which he was granted a consumer credit under the revolving credit model. According to the agreement, the client had a monthly limit of 3000 euros for the expenses he considered convenient. The disposition of the money was at the request of the user by credit card or telephone call.

The bank established an interest rate of 24.6% on the contract, which would add 4.5% in interest for late payment.

In total, the client arranged for the duration of the contract of 25,634 euros, generating interest of 18,568 euros, of which he paid a third.

In a first instance and in a second review by the courts of Cerdanyola del Vallés and Audiencia de Barcelona, ​​the bank was given the reason. However, the cassation appeal reached the Supreme Court, who issued a final judgment in favor of the client under the Law of Repression of Usury (1908), which establishes as “usurer” that credit whose interest rate significantly exceeds the national average.. Thus the interest charged was interpreted as excessive, not the revolving credit modality.

In short, one could ask if the decision to opt for a revolving credit was correct or a credit in Creditpoly would have been preferable, in which the client knows before contracting it how much and when the credit will be paid. Also, once you are already our client, you can make your application much easier and receive the money in just 10 minutes.

Mortgage Loan: Portrait of Women Borrowing Alone

One-third of solo borrowers in 2017 are women. For International Women’s Rights Day, Empruntis published a study this Thursday on the report of women on real estate purchases. 89% of them invested in a principal residence. 

In 2017, almost one in three (32.6%) individual borrowers was a single woman. For the International Women’s Rights Day, Empruntis published this Thursday a study on women’s relationship to real estate purchase. They are starting more and more in the adventure (30% in 2016), despite lower incomes than men.

39% of the borrowers are in their thirties

39% of the borrowers are in their thirties

In the European Union, a woman earns on average 16% less than a man according to Eurostat. This inequality does not scare the banks, ” with equivalent incomes, a single man will not be favored by a bank at the expense of a single woman, ” says Cécile Roquelaure d’Empruntis in the columns of Figaro. Wage inequality, however, weighs on women’s ability to borrow.

Despite the obstacles, 68% of women borrowed solo last year. In detail, 89% of women invested in a principal residence. 9% of them took advantage of a rental investment, but only 2% invested in a second home. The age group of the 30-39 age group remains the majority (39%), followed closely by the 40-49 age group (25%). Most solo borrowers are nulliparous singles.

Mostly single, without dependent children

Mostly single, without dependent children

For example, under 30s are 99% single and 90% nulliparous. The forty-year-olds are an exception, as 58% have at least one dependent child. ” I’m going to leave something to my children, ” says a 42-year-old owner in Metz (Moselle). This age group invests with an average monthly income of 3,675 euros. This is the second highest average monthly income per age group, behind 50 years and over with 4,355 euros.

In general, borrowers alone have the status of non-executive employees. They are 54% among those under 30, 44% among the 30-39 age group and 39% among 40-49 year olds. As for the nature of the goods purchased, first-time buyers prefer old real estate. In all age groups, about 7 out of 10 women with children prefer to buy a house from an apartment. Before age 40, women without children prefer to buy an apartment.